Category Archives: climate change

climate change, coral, coral reefs, reef health

Marine Pollution Bulletin: Viewpoint: The Coral Reef Crisis: The Importance of <350 ppm CO2 by Veron (a), Hoegh-Guldberg (b), Lenton (c), Lough (d), Obura (e), Pearce-Kelly (f,i), Sheppard (g), Spalding (h, i), Stafford-Smith (a), Rogers (j, i).

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Since this is a copyrighted article, we refer you to the Marine Pollution Bulletin 58 (2009) 1428-1436 and provide this abstract:

Temperature-induced mass coral bleaching causing mortality on a wide geographic scale started when atmospheric CO2 levels exceeded 320 ppm. When CO2 levels reach 340 ppm, sporadic but highly destructive mass bleaching occurred in most reefs worldwide, often associated with El Nino events. Recovery was dependent on the vulnerability of individual reef areas and on the reef’s previous history and resilience.

At today’s level of 387 ppm, allowing a lag-time of 10 years for sea temperatures to respond, most reefs world-wide are committed to an irreversible decline. Mass bleaching will in future become annual, departing from the 4 to 7 years return-time of El Nino events. Bleaching will be exacerbated by the effects of degraded water-quality and increased severe weather events. In addition, the progressive onset of ocean acidification will cause reduction of coral growth and retardation of the growth of high magnesium calcite-secreting coralline algae.

If CO2 levels are allowed to reach 450 ppm (due to occur by 2030–2040 at the current rates), reefs will be in rapid and terminal decline world-wide from multiple synergies arising from mass bleaching, ocean acidification and other environmental impacts. Damage to shallow reef communities will become extensive with consequent reduction of biodiversity followed by extinctions. Reefs will cease to be large-scale nursery grounds for fish and will cease to have most of their current value to humanity. There will be knock-on effects to ecosystems associated with reefs, and to other pelagic and benthic ecosystems.

Should CO2 levels reach 600 ppm, reefs will be eroding geological structures with populations of surviving biota restricted to refuges. Domino effects will follow, affecting many other marine ecosystems. This is likely to have been the path of great mass extinctions of the past, adding to the case that anthropogenic CO2 emissions could trigger the Earth’s sixth mass extinction.

Authors are from the following institutions:
a Coral Reef Research, Townsville, Australia
b Centre for Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Australia
c School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, United Kingdom
d Australian Institute of Marine Science, Townsville, Australia
e IUCN Coral Specialist Group, CORDIO East Africa, Mombasa, Kenya
f Zoological Society of London, London, United Kingdom
g Department of Biological Sciences, University of Warwick, Coventry, United Kingdom
h The Nature Conservancy, Newmarket, United Kingdom
i Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge, United Kingdom
j International Programme on State of the Ocean and Zoological Society of London, London, United Kingdom

climate change, coral, coral reefs

Coral-list discussion: Change Global Behavior

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#ChangeGlobalBehavior

This comment from Nohora Galvis posted on the NOAA Coral-list is part of a discussion of how to reduce the impacts of climate change. It is the best summary I have read yet:

Fundación ICRI Colombia en Pro de los Arrecifes Coralinos icri.colombia@gmail.com via coral.aoml.noaa.gov

Dec 2 (1 day ago)

Dear Leslie,

This is about all, as all of us are decision makers. Of course, the
main responsibility goes to the top decision makers who work in our
representation to rule the world by applying new regulations and
enforce them. It is about the communities and Civil Society who should
be listened without discrimination to allow them to speak up (Civil
Rights) and request as many times as needed to promote better
conservation of coral reefs. It is about scientists who should open to
other scenarios to publish their findings e.g. social media, without
feeling that they are losing rigor by expressing that they also FEEL
passion about coral reef conservation.

It is also about organizers of international meetings who allow online
participation to reduce the environmental / economic cost of
travelling. It is about Environmental International and National
Organizations who should allow participation of scientific based
advocacy. It is about every one of the human beings who decide what to
buy, how to move from one place to other, who recycle, who diminish
consumption, who update their information to become more environmental
friendly, who are open to advice to improve local and global behavior.

At #COP21 We are starting to #ChangeGlobalBehavior !!!

All the best,
Nohora Galvis

climate change, coral disease

Coral-list: Jeffrey Maynard announces Nature Climate Change publication “Projections of Climate Conditions that increase coral disease susceptibility and pathogen abundance and virulence.”

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We’d like to bring your attention to a paper recently published in *Nature
Climate Change *titled: *Projections of climate conditions that increase
coral disease susceptibility and pathogen abundance and virulence. *

We present and compare climate model projections of temperature conditions
that will increase coral susceptibility to disease, pathogen abundance and
pathogen virulence under both moderate (RCP 4.5) and fossil fuel aggressive
(RCP 8.5) emissions scenarios. We also compare projections for the onset of
disease-conducive conditions and severe annual coral bleaching, and produce
a disease risk summary that combines climate stress with stress caused by
local human activities.

Some highlight results:

1. Disease is as likely to cause coral mortality as bleaching in the coming
decades. As evidence of this, at 96% of reef locations at least 2 of the 3
temperature conditions examined occur before annual severe coral bleaching
is projected to occur.

2. There are areas that meet 2 or all 3 of the temperature conditions
examined and have high or very high anthropogenic stress. These
are priority locations for reducing stress caused by local human activities
and testing management interventions to reduce disease impacts.

3. The emissions scenarios RCP8.5 and 4.5 take time to diverge and there is
little difference between the scenarios for the timing of the various
disease-promoting conditions being met. This is further evidence that
reducing stress caused by local human activities will be critically
important to reducing disease impacts in the coming decades.

The role of disease as a significant driver of future reef community
composition is under-appreciated, especially in the Indo-Pacific. Our paper
strongly suggests disease needs to be given greater consideration in
management planning. Further, we need to develop more early warning tools
for disease similar to the few already developed and the tools available
for monitoring bleaching risk from NOAA Coral Reef Watch.

The article can be accessed from the front page here:

http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate2625.html

A short story about the article:

http://www.news.cornell.edu/stories/2015/05/scientists-expect-more-coral-disease-under-climate-change

Our author team: Jeff Maynard, Ruben van Hooidonk, Mark Eakin, Marjetta
Puotinen, Melissa Garren, Gareth Williams, Scott Heron, Joleah Lamb,
Ernesto Weil, Bette Willis, and Drew Harvell.

*Funders: NOAA Climate Program Office and US National Science Foundation.

—
Jeffrey A. Maynard
Research Faculty – Dept of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Cornell
University
Research Scientist – CRIOBE & EPHE/CNRS of Moorea, Polynesia and Paris,
France.
Manager – Marine Applied Research Center, North Carolina.
P (mobile): +1 (910) 616-1096
E: maynardmarine@gmail.com
Skype: jefmaynard
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Coral-List mailing list
Coral-List@coral.aoml.noaa.gov
http://coral.aoml.noaa.gov/mailman/listinfo/coral-list

climate change

Coral-list: Oceans 2015 Initiative An updated synthesis of the observed and projected impacts of climate change on physical and biological processes in the oceans (Part I) and An updated understanding of the observed and projected impacts of ocean warming and acidification on marine and coastal socioeconomic activities/sectors

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Part I

Part II

It is my pleasure to send you the links (free access) to two reports of the Oceans 2015 Initiative. These reports summarize the key findings of the Fifth IPCC Assessment Report (AR5) and bring in newer literature to assess the impacts of ocean warming, acidification, deoxygenation, and sea level rise, linking ocean physics and chemistry to biological processes and ecosystem functions (Part I), and ecosystem services and ocean-related human activities (Part II). These reports are the first two of several items being developed to provide input to the upcoming 21st Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.

The Oceans 2015 Initiative, Part I. An updated synthesis of the observed and projected impacts of climate change on physical and biological processes in the oceans — E. Howes, F. Joos, M. Eakin, J.-P. Gattuso — http://www.iddri.org/Publications/The-Oceans-2015-Initiative,Part-I-An-updated-synthesis-of-the-observed-and-projected-impacts-of-climate-change-on-physical-and

The Oceans 2015 Initiative, Part II. An updated understanding of the observed and projected impacts of ocean warming and acidification on marine and coastal socioeconomic activities/sectors — L. Weatherdon, A. Rogers, R. Sumaila, A. Magnan, W.L. Cheung — http://www.iddri.org/Publications/The-Oceans-2015-Initiative,Part-II-An-updated-understanding-of-the-observed-and-projected-impacts-of-ocean-warming-and-acidific

Cheers,
Mark
——————————————————————
C. Mark Eakin, Ph.D.
Coordinator, NOAA Coral Reef Watch
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Center for Satellite Applications and Research
Satellite Oceanography & Climate Division
e-mail: mark.eakin@noaa.gov
url: coralreefwatch.noaa.gov

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President Barack Obama, June 17, 2014