Letter by Dr. Thomas Goreau of the Global Coral Reef Alliance dated December 18 2009
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
Conference of Parties 15
Copenhagen, Denmark
COP-15 CONDEMNS CORAL REEFS, LOW ISLANDS, AND LOW COASTS TO EXTINCTION
Any agreement that might be reached in Copenhagen today will condemn coral reefs, low lying island nations, and all low lying coastlines to extinction, because none of the targets being discussed here are adequate to protect them.
All targets proposed are based on models that intrinsically miss more than 90% of the long term climate response to CO2 that are shown in the real climate data. The sensitivity of global sea level and temperature to CO2 shown in the climate record are many times greater than IPCC models suggest. IPCC projections only show the first small initial fraction of the long-term climatic response. The heat is now building up in the deep sea, and only when the deep ocean and ice caps warm up will we feel the full effect of warming. This takes thousands of years.
Coral reefs can take no further warming. We have already lost most of the corals in the world to heat stroke, and it is only a question of when the next record hot year will happen for us to lose most of what is left. Statistically speaking, that will happen in 2010. Therefore proposed targets to let temperature rise by 1.5 or 2 degrees are a death sentence for coral reefs and the marine biodiversity, fisheries, sand supplies, tourism, and shore protection of over 100 countries.
Low lying islands and low lying coastal areas, where billions of people live, can’t take further sea level rise. The long-term equilibrium sea level for TODAY’S atmospheric CO2 concentration is 23 metres (75 feet) above today’s level. The equilibrium sea level for only 280 ppm of CO2 is 7 metres (23 feet) above today’s level. That is the level shown by the flashing red lights on the light poles outside the Bella Center, or around the height of the ceiling of the first floor. At that time Copenhagen was submerged, and crocodiles and hippopotamuses roamed the tropical swamps of London, England. The safe level of CO2 to avert this inevitable ultimate consequence is about 260 ppm. Therefore proposed targets of 350 or 450 ppm amount to a suicide pact for low lying island nations, and billions of people who live near low lying coasts..
Not only are the world’s policy makers failing to grasp the magnitude of the crisis future generations face, and irresponsibly failing to act in time, they are also ignoring known solutions. These are proven and available now, but we are just not using them because policy makers and funding agencies are not using new technologies to adapt to climate change and to reverse CO2 increases and global warming. The United Nations Commission of Sustainable Development Small Island Developing States Partnership In New Sustainable Technologies has issued a 40 chapter multimedia DVD at COP-15 showing cost-effective solutions that could be rapidly implemented to prevent the looming disaster, if there were policies and funding to promote effective action. Many of these new technologies have already been implemented in SIDS on pilot scales, so this is not a technology transfer issue but one of endogenous capacity development.
The world’s leaders have known for more than two years exactly when their final exam was scheduled, but they refused to study for it. Now that they have flunked the exam, they are basically claiming the dog ate the assignment. Our planet’s people need much higher seriousness, less talk, and immediate action.
For more information contact Dr. Thomas Goreau at goreau@bestweb.net
Dr. Goreau is President of the Global Coral Reef Alliance and founder and Coordinator of the UNCSD SIDS Partnership In New Sustainable Technologies.. He was previously Senior Scientific Affairs Officer for global climate change and Biodiversity at the United Nations Centre for Science and Technology for Development. Educated in Jamaican schools, he holds degrees in atmospheric physics, astronomy, chemistry, and microbiology from MIT, Caltech, and Harvard. He developed the HotSpot method to accurately predict the location, timing, and intensity of coral bleaching from satellite data, and made the first measurements of the effects of Amazon deforestation on greenhouse gas emissions. He has dived longer and in more places than any coral scientist.
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posted on the Coralist by:
Dr. James M. Cervino
Pace University &
Visiting Scientist Woods Hole Oceanographic Inst.
NYC Address: 9-22 119st
College Point NY NY 11356
Cell: 917-620*5287
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