http://www.sunherald.com/2010/05/22/2201349/currents-keep-gulf-oil-spill-farther.html

by Matt Sedensky

KEY WEST, Fla. — A powerful current forecast to bring oil from the massive Gulf of Mexico spill to the Florida Keys has shifted, though fears remain that the slick will inevitably hit the state.

At a public meeting Saturday, officials tried to allay residents’ fears, saying the so-called “loop current” expected to send the oil to Florida had moved west. That could delay the arrival of tar balls and other forms of oil to the Keys.

“Are we out of the woods? No. The loop current does eventually come into the Florida Straits and this way,” said Sean Morton, superintendent of the Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary, which is overseen by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

The loop current is a ribbon of warm water that begins in the Gulf of Mexico and wraps around Florida. Like the oil, the loop’s position is constantly changing based on winds and currents, meaning predictions on its trajectory are also ever-fluctuating.

Capt. Pat DeQuattro, commander of the Coast Guard station in Key West, said NOAA projections do not forecast the oil arriving in the Keys before Monday. “There is no imminent threat to the Keys at this point,” he said.

Even a small amount of oil spreading to the Keys could be catastrophic for sea life, mangroves and the already weakened coral reefs, not to mention an economy that revolves around tourism and commercial fishing. That keeps residents on edge, including Mila deMier, a 37-year-old real estate agent in Key West.

“I do not believe it,” she said of officials’ optimism about the spill’s effect on the Keys. “We are being lied to.”