There have been conflicting rumblings across the newswire services and across social media outlets whether the Gulf oil spill has been entrained into the Gulf of Mexico Loop Current.
The images below from NASA’s MODIS satellite speaks volumes and confirms many people’s worst fears.
Per The Weather Channel’s tropical expert Dr. Richard Knabb, “based on satellite images, model simulations, and on-site research vessel reports, I think it is reasonable to conclude that the oil slick at the surface is very near or partially in the loop current. The loop current is responsible in the first place for extending that stream of oil off to the southeast in satellite imagery.”
Oil spill streaks southeast due to influence from the Loop Current
Image credit: NASA/GSFC, MODIS Rapid Response
Oil streak close-up view
Image credit: NASA/GSFC, MODIS Rapid Response
It’s a big deal because it’s a mode of transportation for the oil spill. No longer will it be confined in the northern Gulf Coast.
The oil spill has discovered its exit strategy and that exit is now in progress.
The Loop Current’s influence has pulled the oil at the ocean surface toward the southeast away from the original oil spill area.
This influential “pull” has now positioned the oil either just at the doorstep of the Loop Current or it is indeed now inside the current.
Gulf of Mexico Loop Current
Where will it go?
With its proximity to the northern edge of the Loop Current it may be only a matter of weeks or even days before the ocean surface oil is transported toward the Florida Keys and southeast Florida.
Clicking on the image below will open up an ensemble model computer forecast of the potential oil pathway in the coming days.
Unfortunately, three out of the four computer models show that the oil will indeed be caught in the current and swept to the south.
Click to animate ensemble computer model forecasts
Courtesy of The Ocean Circulation Group at the University of South Florida’s College of Marine Science
“This can’t be passed off as ‘it’s not going to be a problem,'” said William Hogarth, dean of the University of South Florida’s College of Marine Science. “This is a very sensitive area. We are concerned with what happens in the Florida Keys.”
Per a report from The Associated Press, Hogarth said it’s still too early to know what specific amounts of oil will make it to Florida, or what damage it might do to the sensitive Keys or beaches on Florida’s Atlantic coast.
He said claims by BP that the oil would be less damaging to the Keys after traveling over hundreds of miles from the spill site were not mollifying.
Damage is already done, with the only remaining question being how much more is to come, said Paul Montagna, from the Harte Research Institute for Gulf of Mexico Studies at Texas A&M University.